The ITP Indicator of polyethylene global trade showed a volume of 72.2 million tons in 2025, up 1% from 2024. The upward trend visible since 2023 will be disrupted in 2026.

The ITP Indicator measures imports/exports plus intra-regional trade. Because global trade for many polymers and other products is driven by demand, the trend in global volume also generally indicates the trend in global demand, provided supplies are not constrained.

However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sharply restricted exports from the world’s largest exporting region of both polymer and polymers feedstocks. According to Dow’s CEO, Jim Fetterling, speaking at the S&P Global Conference and cited in Fortune, there will be long term shortages and price spikes: “The die is cast for the rest of the year for what’s going to happen in the markets.”

From 2021 to 2025 there was a surge in exports from North America, shipments in 2025 representing 36% of total global exports of 43 million tons. Exports from the Middle East declined over the period and represented 42% of the the global total in 2025.

Although North America can help replace some of the supplies from the Middle East, it is unlikely that it can do all. According to Plastics News, capacity utilization currently exceeds 90%, with some resin plants near sold-out conditions.

Every world region imported more polymer in 2025 than in 2021, with the biggest gains in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa. Each of these regions imported large volumes from the Middle East.

From International Trader Publications’ World Trade Analyses on all grades of polyethylene, continuously updated based on latest statistics from all publishing countries.