The decline as a percentage of US total exports mainly reflected the rapid expansion of US exports worldwide. The USMCA is currently being reviewed; its renewal is uncertain.

US exports of polyethylene (all grades combined) have risen dramatically, from 9.3 million tons in 2021 to 15.7 million tons in 2025, on gains to every world region. Shipments to Canada plus Mexico have ranged narrowly between 2.6 – 3.1 million tons per year. Exports to Mexico trended modestly higher each year; shipments to Canada fluctuated.

In 2025, Mexico imported 84% of its polyethylene from the US; Canada imported 94%. Imports into both countries were duty free under the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement that entered into force on July 1, 2020.

The Agreement is up for mandatory review, with a July 1, 2026 deadline, but severely strained relations between the US and Canada make its clean renewal by that date one of the less likely of the six scenarios posed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

From International Trader Publications World Trade Analyses on all grades of polyethylene, based on continuously updated latest statistics from all publishing countries.