China, Pakistan, and other trading partner import statistics corroborate the increase in polyethylene volumes from Iran and other Middle East sources.

Accurate figures for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 80% of total Middle East polyethylene exports travel (I.M3/ICIS) are not available. The Automatic Identification System used by IMF/University of Oxford is based on transponder data and shows very low traffic in recent months. The majority of ships passing through the Strait, however, switch off transponders to avoid detection (Al Jazeera).

Iran’s official statistics (below) show exports of polyethylene (all grades) totaling 1.3 million tons through August, down 48%. Exports trended upward from May’s record low volume of 7,000 tons, reaching 212,000 tons in August.

Iran’s exports are complicated because polymer is apparently trans-shipped through other Middle East countries (ITP blog), noting, especially, to China.

China reported much lower imports from Iran (256,000 tons through August YTD, down 67%) versus Iran’s export figure (700,000 tons, down 58%). China reported imports from Saudi Arabia of 1.1 million tons, down 33%; from UAE, 765,000 tons, down 48%. Imports from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all trended higher in July and August.

Pakistan’s PE imports, reported through September, also show a surge from Middle East sources from July, noting, especially, Iran.

From International Trader Publications’ World Trade Analyses on all grades of polyethylene, continuously updated analysis based on latest statistics from all reporting countries, and The Iran Polymer Trade Report, analyzing Iran’s imports/exports of all commodity polymers, recyclable polymers, and fabricated plastic products.